Global temperatures continue to rise, breaking records year after year. A new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has revealed an 80% probability that at least one new annual temperature record will be set within the next five years, increasing the risks of severe droughts, floods, and wildfires.
A Shocking Probability
The report revealed a small but worrying chance that, before 2030, the world’s average temperature could rise by 2°C above pre-industrial levels — a scenario scientists have described as “shocking.” This warning comes as the last ten years have been the hottest decade on record. The report cautions that the continued burning of oil, gas, and coal, along with deforestation, poses an escalating threat to human health, economies, and the environment.
Projections Point to a 70% Chance of Exceeding 1.5°C
Forecasts indicate there is a 70% chance that the average global temperature between 2025 and 2029 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This would push the world dangerously close to breaching the most ambitious target of the Paris Climate Agreement — the international treaty aimed at limiting climate change.
Chances of a 2°C Increase Before 2030
The probability of the Earth’s temperature rising by 2°C before 2030 remains very low, but it would require multiple warming factors to align, including a strong El Niño event and a positive phase of Arctic Oscillation.
Adam Scaife of the UK Met Office, who contributed to the data analysis, explained that while the chance of a 2°C rise is still possible, its likelihood is only about 1% over the next five years — but this probability will grow as global temperatures continue to climb.
What Happened in 2024?
In 2024, for the first time, the global annual average temperature exceeded the 1.5°C threshold — a scenario once thought impossible in any five-year forecast before 2014. Last year also recorded the highest global temperature in 175 years of instrumental measurements.
Expected Climate Changes
Temperatures in the Arctic winter are projected to rise three and a half times faster than the global average, due to the melting of sea ice, which leads to snowfall directly into the ocean instead of forming a reflective ice layer that bounces sunlight away.
Meanwhile, the Amazon rainforest is expected to face more intense droughts, while South Asia, the Sahel region, and Northern Europe — including the UK — are likely to experience increased rainfall.
Warnings About Health Impacts
Leon Hermanson from the Met Office, who led the preparation of the report, stated that 2025 is likely to be among the three warmest years ever recorded. Chris Hewitt, Director of Climate Services at the World Meteorological Organization, described the overall outlook as “worrying” for heatwaves and human health, stressing that it is not too late to limit global warming if fossil fuel emissions are reduced.
Scientists emphasize that a 1.5°C rise in temperature is not inevitable — but it will require urgent and effective climate action.
