In a world growing hotter year after year, climate phenomena are no longer viewed as temporary fluctuations, but as recurring warning signs of a planet under increasing stress.
The latest scientific forecasts indicate a possible development of the El Niño phenomenon during the second half of this year potentially at an exceptionally strong level raising concerns over the emergence of a “Super El Niño.”
Such events rarely pass quietly. They have the power to reshape weather patterns across the globe, triggering a chain of destructive consequences ranging from record-breaking heatwaves to extreme weather events in multiple regions.
Their impact may also extend far beyond the current year, with experts warning that the effects could persist into 2027, which may become one of the hottest years ever recorded.
What Is El Niño?
According to the latest report issued by the Climate Prediction Center of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), climate models currently show a 62% probability of El Niño developing between late spring and summer and continuing at least through the end of the year.
El Niño is not an isolated event, but part of a broader climate system known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring interaction between the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Scientists identify three main phases within this system:
El Niño: occurs when sea surface temperatures rise above average.
La Niña: occurs when sea surface temperatures fall below average.
Neutral phase: when neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present, and sea surface temperatures remain close to average ,this is the phase the world is currently experiencing following the end of La Niña.
The ENSO cycle typically emerges during spring in the Northern Hemisphere and recurs every three to seven years. Sea surface temperature variations during El Niño and La Niña events generally range between one and three degrees Celsius, according to the U.S. National Weather Service.
Under normal conditions, trade winds blow from east to west, pushing warm surface waters toward the western Pacific. During El Niño years, however, these winds weaken or even reverse direction, allowing warmer waters to accumulate in the eastern and central Pacific.
This warming then affects atmospheric circulation, influencing weather systems worldwide.
Meteorologists closely monitor ocean temperatures and El Niño forecasts because of their critical role in predicting future weather patterns and preparing for shifts in extreme climate events.
El Niño’s Global Impact
While many factors influence weather systems, El Niño remains one of the most disruptive climate phenomena. It can dramatically alter rainfall patterns in some regions while causing severe drought in others, in addition to intensifying storms and global warming trends.
Typically, El Niño brings hotter and drier conditions to Australia, southern and central Africa, India, and parts of South America, including the Amazon rainforest.
Meanwhile, southern regions of the United States, parts of the Middle East, and south-central Asia may experience heavier-than-usual rainfall, according to a report by The Guardian.
Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, stated that the 2023–2024 El Niño was among the five strongest ever recorded and contributed to the record global temperatures observed during 2024.
The importance of studying phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña extends beyond understanding their climatic impact. Seasonal forecasting also helps reduce economic losses and supports planning in climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, energy, and water management.
These forecasts are also a crucial component of climate information used in humanitarian operations and disaster risk management, ultimately helping save lives.
How Likely Is a Super El Niño?
Current oceanic and atmospheric conditions are already showing meaningful signals, including gradual warming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, shifts in wind patterns particularly westerly winds and heat accumulation beneath the ocean surface.
These are considered hallmark indicators of the early stages of El Niño, which in previous decades have evolved into moderate or even strong events.
Adding to scientists’ concerns is a broader climate factor: global warming. Sea surface temperatures across most of the world’s oceans remain above historical averages.
This widespread warming, linked to ongoing climate variability, could amplify El Niño’s effects and increase the likelihood of more extreme climate events.
Despite the growing use of the term “Super El Niño” and increasing climate model projections, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) cautions that spring forecasts in the Northern Hemisphere are often affected by what scientists call the “spring predictability barrier.”
During the March-to-May period, changes in the tropical Pacific climate system are generally more difficult to predict than at other times of the year. Forecast accuracy typically improves between late May and June.
A Climate Warning the World Can No Longer Ignore
In a world experiencing accelerating climate change, phenomena such as El Niño are no longer routine cycles that can be overlooked. They have become critical indicators of growing climate imbalance.
Yet these forecasts also provide an opportunity: a chance for early planning and for transforming scientific knowledge into more informed decisions.
Preparing for the climate future does not begin when disaster strikes it begins long before it happens.
