Just a week ago, parts of the United States experienced a severe cold wave, with temperatures approaching or dropping below zero in some areas. Yet, unexpectedly, the same regions recorded a record-breaking heatwave with the arrival of spring.
What happened in the United States cannot be considered an isolated event. Thousands of kilometers away, several Arab countries are experiencing extreme climate fluctuations expected to peak today and tomorrow—a pattern that has become more intense and frequent compared to the past.
This sharp shift is increasingly becoming a persistent reality and cannot be explained as a “natural fluctuation” in weather. Rather, it is a clear example of what scientists describe as a “disruption in the behavior of the climate system,” one of the most complex and dangerous manifestations of climate change.
Loss of Climate Memory
It is similar to a person who lived for years with a stable routine and steady rhythm, then suddenly began to lose that rhythm—forgetting what they were used to, behaving unpredictably, and shifting between contradictory states without warning. This mirrors certain cases of memory loss, where behavior is no longer consistent with the past and becomes difficult to predict.
So, has the world begun to lose its “climate memory”? And has it become harder to predict weather behavior after it once followed a relatively stable pattern?
What happened in the United States?
On March 19, an unprecedented heatwave affected 14 U.S. states, driven by what is known as a “heat dome”—a phenomenon that traps hot air over a large area. According to the Associated Press, this wave is expected to be one of the most widespread heatwaves in U.S. history.
What was striking was not only the rise in temperatures, but also the timing of the heatwave and the sharp transition following a harsh winter.
The World Weather Attribution network confirms that the likelihood of such phenomena has increased over the past decade due to climate change.
From Washington to Cairo… the same disruption, different scenario
During the same period, the Arab region is witnessing another scenario of sudden climate fluctuations. This disruption is particularly evident in Egypt between March 22 and 26, described by local media as the “week of weather surprises.”
According to the Egyptian Meteorological Authority, conditions are shifting within days through sharp fluctuations—from relatively warm weather to noticeably colder nights, accompanied by strong winds.
The peak of instability is expected on March 25 and 26, with warnings of:
Heavy thunderstorms in some areas
Noticeable drops in temperature
Strong winds carrying sand and dust
Possible hail in some governorates
Severe weather disturbances affecting coastal areas, Sinai, and Cairo
These fluctuations are not limited to Egypt. The UAE has experienced heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds, while Saudi Arabia has recorded repeated cases of rain, dust storms, and noticeable temperature drops.
Oman is also witnessing varying rainfall intensities, potentially accompanied by active winds and hail until March 30. This winter storm is expected to impact parts of Iraq and the Levant.
What is the cause?
Most of these sharp weather fluctuations in the Arab world are linked to low-pressure systems influenced by cold and humid air masses from the Mediterranean or southern Europe.
Such fluctuations are common in spring due to the transition between cold and warm air masses. However, climate change is making them more intense and frequent due to disruptions in the climate system and rising global temperatures.
According to the World Weather Attribution network, the series of violent storms and fluctuations in parts of the Mediterranean region is linked to global warming. Warmer air holds more moisture, making heavy rainfall more intense when low-pressure systems occur.
In Egypt and the Levant, these systems pass over the Mediterranean, turning into heavy thunderstorms with temperature drops. In the Gulf region, they often interact with moisture from the Arabian Gulf.
Storm Samuel in the Mediterranean
One of the key factors behind these fluctuations, especially in Egypt, is Storm Samuel, which affected the Mediterranean basin during March.
The storm began as a cold low-pressure system over the western Mediterranean, gradually developing as it moved eastward. Along its path, it caused heavy rain and strong winds in several Mediterranean countries such as Spain and Italy.
It later reached Libya and then Egypt, bringing strong winds, thunderstorms, reduced visibility due to dust, and disruptions to maritime navigation.
A recent study published by the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service predicts that the intensity of storms in both the western and eastern Mediterranean will increase in the future, warning of serious social and economic consequences as the Mediterranean becomes a climate hotspot.
A rapidly changing climate landscape
In the past, weather followed a relatively stable rhythm:
Cold winter → gradual transition → mild spring.
Today, the situation has changed. Climate transitions between cold and heat have become rapid, and fluctuations now occur within days, accompanied by disruptions in seasonal timing.
The accelerating climate disruption in the U.S., Egypt, and the Gulf shows that the climate has lost its memory. It no longer transitions smoothly but fluctuates as if it has lost its natural rhythm—making the past no longer a reliable indicator of what will come next.
